[Maurice A. Shamell]

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The nail-biting ISSMA Regional weekend is upon us, for most it does appear the weather will cooperate, but there are plenty of concerns and near miss things we need to discuss. Lets get started first with the synopsis. I will have a full detailed discussion on my fan page over at www.facebook.com/MoeWx after the noon models complete later this evening.

Synopsis: UPDATED This weekend there will a deepening Low Pressure system already underway across the Plains and along the Mississippi River Saturday afternoon. The main low will race from the south Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes during the day, there will be a strong surface trough (cold front) surging southeast towards the Midwest, ahead of it there will be a threat for severe weather directly to our west, fortunately for Indiana, I don not expect any of this activity to affect the contests sites. That is if things don't speed up. We'll call that a near miss. 

However, I am concerned about the warm front. As the above occurs in far Western Illinois, Missouri and Iowa. The warm air will surge northeast across Indiana in the form of a warm front, This feature has been fairly dry for the majority of Indiana, but it does appear there will be problems for the Chesterton Regional Site. Models have slowed way down on the warm front. Future radar now has a pretty good and widespread rain developing and pushing into Indiana this afternoon. Every along and north of I-70 will get wet. The better concentration is north. Take an umbrella and for Lafayette/Chesterton bring a poncho... and patience will be a long day... 

Northern Indiana: UPDATE: Mostly Cloudy and relatively cool early with temperatures around 45°F in the morning. Clouds will rapidly increase out of the southwest as a warm front moves in from southwest to northeast. Chesterton site is the closest to the main surface low, so the best lift will be here, I am expecting scattered showers, occasionally heavy rain... Warm front has slowed down on modeling through Saturday Evening. Not good news for Chesterton Regional Site. It's really starting to look like a wash out in Chesterton. Afternoon High around 67°F.  It will be on the windy side with a warm strong southwest breeze at 15-20 mph.  Take an umbrella and bring the poncho! 

Central Indiana: UPDATED Cloudy start with temperatures in the mid 40s. Strong area of High Pressure will be swiftly exiting into Ohio early, but the afternoon despite the extensive cloud cover will rapidly warm up thanks to a warm front and associated southwest Low level jet. Afternoon will be cloudy and breezy winds out of the southwest at 15-20 mph. High will be around 74°F. Friday evening mesoscale models are wanting to slow the warm front down, and it looks more active than earlier this week. I added rain problems to Lafayette and to a lesser extent Indianapolis through 2-3:00 PM. bottom line: Take an umbrella.

Southern Indiana: UPDATED Cloudy start warm front may already be north by mid-late morning. Maybe some scattered showers early. bulk of the activity will stay north.  Morning temperatures will be in the lower 50s. It will become Mostly Cloudy with breaks in the clouds behind the warm front. Afternoon Highs will be around 82°F thanks again to a strong southwest flow at 15-20 mph. Very windy day. It will feel a lot like spring storm season.